It has begun...

[bloke]

I did the same sort of strategies, and have never bought any car that I couldn't just pay for by writing a check. I don't need fancy cars. I just need Toyotas and a medium large Chevy thing with a 350 in it, so they will start and go.

Americans are programmed to get into debt and stay into debt, and are programmed in many other ways as well, but - if I started going into those - someone would complain to the administrators about me posting too much truth and claiming that this is supposed to be about only tubas, and not about being happy and secure.

[donn]

I see the tariff situation has shifted again, this time letting everyone else off for now, but doubling down on China - the headline say 125%. I read some where else that they were already 181% on cars "in some cases". Numbers vary. I imagine tubas are not a primary target here, they're likely to stay at the lowest rate, but that will still be pretty high.

Honestly, I was kind of hoping it would go in this direction. The tariff package from last week was stupid, based on stupid principles and guaranteed to have ill effects. The China part isn't super likely to bring great happiness, but it does have some basis for what's going on in China.

Trillions invested in building new state of the art factories, beefing up robot production lines, etc., while the population has very little buying power after housing values dropped in 2021 and wiped out assets. Pensions are $20 a month, but the government is spending too much on boosting its military to do any kind of stimulus, so all this production is for export. Potentially as much production as the world can consume. Potentially putting the rest of the world out of the industry business, which I don't think is what the rest of the world really wants, even if the prices look good. Huawei just opened a research center in Shanghai for 35,000 engineers. Don't kid yourself about the west getting out of manufacturing and living off its brainpower - the Chinese may have a brutal and clumsy government (that others seem interested in emulating), but their people have demonstrated an ability to think about as well as anyone.

The west can't hold up against this with tariffs, they'll need to invest in technology and industry, as the US has been doing at least a little, but tariffs could give us breathing room. Maybe reduce military buildup a little.

[bloke]

yeah...The worldwide economic shutdown (formerly labeled as a "conspiracy theory") has - as with so many other "theories" - been shown to be - well... - a conspiracy.

We need more rulers to print more dozens of trillions of dollars which represent 0 goods and 0 services (yes...so that almost no one - via Keynesian idealism - can afford housing/food/transporation - and to fully support the Agenda 21 goal of shoving everyone of the serf class into ghettos), and we need to shut down as many more factories as possible, and only obtain F+ grade supplies from TEMU.

Also, (yes) we need to shut down our defense, as a common defense is the only thing clearly legally defined as something the republic should offer as its single service to the sovereign States. ...but (more specifically) we need to expand our federal offense, and - as with several past presidents who pushed forward with "progress" - go about the world with a nationally-supplied offense - to aggravate and expand otherwise semi-localized conflicts. ie. If there are two or three conflicts occurring here, there, and yon about the world, why not efficiently consolidate them (again, as have past American rulers who championed "progress") into a world war?

bloke "Hear hear!"

Hey @LeMark, just notice who opened up the topic and who aggravated it...me? I'm just here mocking it.
...of yeah...and laughing, because they just...can't...stand...it... that he's now won three times in a row.

[Mary Ann]

Before it gets locked -- while I may see the implementation of this could have been a "bit" smoother -- the point is to move manufacturing back to this country so WE have the jobs, and to reverse, hopefully, what I have labeled The Walmart-ization of America, in which people have been trained to buy more and more cheaply made things that fall apart after almost zero uses, so they have to buy more and more of that junk, with none of the money staying here except the sales tax; people manning those enterprises who could have had better jobs if those jobs were here. Instead of the really good stuff that I am old enough to remember AND also still own some of (I still use my 1970s Farberware pans,) because it hasn't fallen apart in three uses. That is the point, however poorly managed. It needed to get done somehow, and that is why that guy is POTUS. Oops gosh golly gee I went political. Ooopsie oopsie oopsie. Baaaad girl.

[Yorkboy]

Now, maybe there will be a stronger market for slicked-out, fixed-up, modernized vintage American-made tubas………(by an American?)

[donn]

Sadly, it may be why that guy is POTUS, even if his predecessor was already on it in a more competent way. We already had tariffs on China, and we were investing in domestic technology and industry. That's what China is doing with trillions; we haven't, which is why we need to buy time with the tariffs. The free market fairy let us down again. If the west doesn't go all out to build up a competitive industrial plant, the tariffs will be in vain.

It isn't just about the economics. The US depends on China for some critical stuff, as far as I know utterly dependent for practical purposes. Like pharmaceutical chemicals. If they get hostile enough for one reason or another, they could bring America to its knees. The EU has a Critical Medicines act that hopefully will help reduce that problem, in the EU. There's more to it than tariffs.

[hrender]

I see the tariff situation has shifted again, this time letting everyone else off for now, but doubling down on China - the headline say 125%.

Not quite --- China tariff increased to 125%, but the baseline 10% tariff is still on everyone else, plus 25% on Canada and Mexico. Higher "reciprocal" tariffs on everyone else may come back in 90 days. More targeted tariffs (e.g. pharmaceuticals) are also pending.

More here: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/pol ... 010975007/

Under the pause, a universal 10% baseline tariff levied on all imports into the U.S. will remain in effect. The pause also does not extend to industry-specific tariffs on steel and aluminum. Previously imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, which weren't part of last week's reciprocal tariff rollout, will also stay in place.

Tuba content: If you're buying instruments or supplies from the EU, you'll pay 10% more. From China, 125% more. Baltimore Brass has already announced that they'll sell current inventory at current prices but new instruments and accessories will reflect the new tariffs.

The odds that much outsourced manufacturing would move back here is small. It would take 3-5 years to build out the necessary manufacturing and supply-chain capabilities, and the cost of labor in China (since that's the focus) is <1/2 what it is here. More here: https://baysourceglobal.com/a-tale-of-t ... st-decade/

The primary affect of the current tariffs will be to raise prices on finished goods for the US consumer. Small businesses dependent on goods from China for their operation and product line will likely not be able to survive unless they can find another source either foreign or domestic.

I would love it if US instrument manufacturers could revive and thrive. I just don't expect to see it.

The only real outcome of today's maneuvers is a stock windfall for those that bought the dip and continued uncertainty and risk for the rest of us.

[hrender]

Side note: just as with instruments, there are many things that the US primarily imports which still are available through domestic suppliers. You have to look for them, but they exist.

Places to look:

• https://allamerican.org/
• https://www.americanmanufacturing.org/made-in-america/
• https://madeintheusamatters.com/american-made-brands/

Obviously there are also small-scale bespoke manufacturers of items like clothing, bicycles, Martin tuba bits, etc. that exist, but you generally have to know where to find them.

[the elephant]

I have to place an order with Miraphone soon. I suppose I need to make that happen tout de suite.

[bloke]

The goal is zero tariffs on goods sent to other countries and zero-tariffs on goods sent from those countries to this country.

Most countries are eager to have meetings about this as it's obvious that this guy means business. China is dragging their feet, and that's isolating them in the world right now. All markets need America to buy their things, because America buys well over a third of all things bought in the world.

People can continue to pretend like the book "The Art of the Deal" doesn't mean anything, and they can even talk about bankruptcies - which were basically engineered bankruptcies to renegotiate loan terms (as the original loan terms were never intended on being accepted in the first place). For one, I'm quite in awe of those who beat banksters at their own games.

China is in trouble, and they don't quite know how to handle this, but they're going to come to terms with it. The Europeans will come to terms with it very soon, and waiting to buy things from Europe might be a better idea than hurrying up to do so.

Anyway there's a 90-day moratorium to give countries (other than China) a chance to come to terms with reality.

To me it's refreshing to have someone who's not a warmonger (as have been most of these characters...using wars to distract us from the things they're actually doing - which is even worse than prosecuting wars, while - at the same time - treating American citizens as if they're nothing more than bullets to fire out of a gun) but who also understands macroeconomics and isn't some big wuss who is just another guy who's going to kick the can down the road (ie. euch as the ones over the past couple of decades who simply hoped the debt-caused collapse didn't occur during their tenure). ... Every single one of us and every single one of our children and every single American who doesn't have a nickel to their name currently owes about $125,000 in American debt.

During my lifetime, we really haven't had many presidents who were worth a sh!t until, and they've shot the three who were. One of them - when I was a little kid - got popped in the head during a parade in Texas, and another one got popped in the chest about a month after they were elected. They almost got this one in the head... ' missed him by an ear.

I don't blame people for lapping up what they hear on their televisions. Thinking is hard and it kind of hurts, particularly when people aren't used to doing it - or were never properly taught how to do so... Rather than thinking, it's just safer to say what one hears a whole bunch of other people nearby saying.

[dp]

30 posts and a dozen different ideas of whats what and what's to come. My favorite was the one saying sleepy Joe was already working on "it." Honorable mentions to the nascent debate between a couple of my favorites from the PNW. I can hardly wait for another page of reading. Think we'll get it>??>

[bloke]

I don't subscribe to cable or satellite or any paid internet TV stuff... I do look around all over the place to see what different people think, what different people believe, and what some people are trying to get other people to believe.

I encounter a whole bunch of groupthink, a few remarkably insightful people, some remarkably stupid people, and then there is Jim Cramer... I'm not sure whether Jim Cramer is comic relief or some sort of contagious brain cancer, that can be caught through a video screen...

... Oh yeah, and then there's the imbecilic warmonger who thinks he knows something about macroeconomics: John Bolton.

[Mary Ann]

I managed to wonder to whom that tariff money goes; it goes into the federal coffers. So basically it's a federal sales tax.

[bloke]

I managed to wonder to whom that tariff money goes; it goes into the federal coffers. So basically it's a federal sales tax.

It is.
It can also be completely avoided if a foreign manufacturer sets up a factory in the United States to build all the things that are offered for sale by them in the United States - much as Toyota has done some extent.

The original idea was to fund the entire United States federal government off of import duties... and sort of was until 1913.

Once all that income tax money started coming in, though, our government then had enough money to get involved in and aggravate/escalate other countries' wars, as well as becoming involved in all sorts of extra-constitutional activities.

[LeMark]

so what happens if a british based company like Wessex or packer imports chinese horns to the UK, and then sells them to America? is there still the chinese tariff?

[bloke]

so what happens if a british based company like Wessex or packer imports chinese horns to the UK, and then sells them to America? is there still the chinese tariff?

They don't go through Great Britain first.

As I go across segments of various propaganda outlets and - just for the record - Fox News is absolutely a propaganda outlet, as are all the rest)...

...there's a groupthink narrative about "cut the military cut the military cut the military" !!!

A common defense is about the only reason given for forming a republic originally. If anyone trusts this site where anyone can edit it at any time, it shows that the military is only 12% of the federal budget:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Governmen ... ted_States

I would say cut the portion of the military which is offense, keep the portion which is defense, cut everything else to zero, and let the 50 sovereign countries (aka "states" - as in the "STATE" of Israel, etc.) and each raise their own funds for their own interests. As just one example, think how little Alabama and Oregon have in common, other than probably desiring an effective defense, so why bully one or the other into going along with what the other wants via federal tyranny? ...but/and the 50 sovereign countries within the republic can certainly form alliances with other sovereign countries within the republic to decide to pool resources for projects or for things that involve common interests.

Switzerland is right in the middle of a bunch of countries that don't have particularly good historical records of behaving in particularly clever ways, but Switzerland only has a defense, they have no offense, and - in a remarkably long amount of time - they've not been invaded, and nor have there even been any attempts.

[Schlitzz]

I don't subscribe to cable or satellite or any paid internet TV stuff... I do look around all over the place to see what different people think, what different people believe, and what some people are trying to get other people to believe.

I encounter a whole bunch of groupthink, a few remarkably insightful people, some remarkably stupid people, and then there is Jim Cramer... I'm not sure whether Jim Cramer is comic relief or some sort of contagious brain cancer, that can be caught through a video screen...

... Oh yeah, and then there's the imbecilic warmonger who thinks he knows something about macroeconomics: John Bolton.

Yeah, I’m really here for the gig bag stories, observations when watching Perry Mason reruns (out of order), gigs with a viola+trombone couple, and practical yard maintenance (bagging grass clippings, while the window AC is ON).

I used to use the Yamaha stuff for valve oil, slide lube. I’m back to Ponds and Shires (formerly Ultra Pure).

[donn]

so what happens if a british based company like Wessex or packer imports chinese horns to the UK, and then sells them to America? is there still the chinese tariff?

No. I mean, I am not an economist or anything, and I cast around for any specific treatment of this point and didn't find any, but I suppose that's just because it's self evident. A customs officer will have limited ability to discern the real origin of an item or substance, even in a simple case, and many products contain parts of various origins. So, strictly about where the boat came from, and the horn would come in with the product of UK-> US and China-> UK tariffs, which I guess would be around 15% at present. Plus the extra run-around costs and delays, besides tariffs, might dig into the profit considerably.

It seems like a fairly big hole, in principle, but I suppose that if it were exploited in a big way, there'd be a risk of inheriting China's troubles.

[Mary Ann]

Interesting discussion -- I had wondered the same thing about Chinese tubas that don't have their final trip to the US directly from China but from elsewhere. If Packers come directly from China, Packer dealers are going to be hit quite hard, and I can't see the Packer factory, whatever it is, moving to the US. So if you want a Packer, get one now; or just get one now so you can re-sell it in a few years for double what you paid for it, if you can find a buyer. After all, they aren't Miraphones. I'm thinking I should just get a 186 or a 188 to have sit around for a few years. Better than a bank at this point in time. And Eastmans -- same thing as Packers. Jinbao; a bunch of fake names that don't look Chinese but are, in the lower ranks. Get your stuff now! Or it's all a Chinese ploy to coerce people into buying a whole lot more Chinese stuff now and then they can say "oh just kidding!"

[bloke]

Speaking of China's troubles, encouraging depopulation is now causing them quite a few problems - if quite a few articles I've read from various economists (of all sorts of political slants) are telling the truth, but - on the other hand - trying to keep their population busy has created a glut in not only goods but in housing, which is promoting Chinese domestic economic collapse.

The American government never prohibited people from having more than one child, but just about every specific bullet point of the so-called "progressive" movement (which has historically not only been extremely attracted to government power, but has mostly controlled American government) promotes depopulation, as well as raising up those of the next generations to not be able to interact particularly well with the real (ie. 3D) world. The American progressive movement still needs political support though, and it's been trying to shore this up by bringing in tens of millions of people from other parts of the world (mostly free of resources and marketable skills), and those who control the progressive movement hope will show up at polling places and push buttons in their favor.

When any of us reaches out and hires someone to do something that we don't have the specific skills to do ourselves, it's rarely a 25-year-old or a even a 30-year-old who comes to the rescue. It's often a 70-year-old and their 50 year old son, or one or two in a similar age range.

Depopulation of the serf class is nothing new. The ruling class aka ("lords") has been doing this since time immemorial, with the most common methods of the past being wars and famines. When the serf population becomes too large, that threatens the ability of the ruling class to hold on to its power, with the goal of the ruling class to try to have only enough serfs on hand to serve their needs. This is how feudalism has functioned since time immemorial, and relabeling it something like "socialism" or "progressivism" or what have you probably makes it seem more palatable to lemmings.